Atlas mundial mede as perdas com os extremos climáticos

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http://horizontegeografico.com.br/exibirMateria/2174/atlas-mundial-mede-as-perdas-com-os-extremos-climaticos


Atlas mundial mede as perdas com os extremos climáticos

Milhares de vidas e bilhões da economia perdidos e poucas ações preventivas ainda em vigor, entre 1970 e 2012

Sucena Shkrada Resk

Seca no continente africano resultou em maior número de mortes na Etiópia - Foto: Divulgação/ONU

Os desastres naturais se intensificam no mundo e o tempo de resposta à adaptação e mitigação (redução de danos) está muito aquém do necessário para diminuir a vulnerabilidade e as perdas de vidas e o enfraquecimento de economias. Em 42 anos (1970-2012), ocorreram 8.835 desastres, 1,94 milhão de mortes e US $ 2,4 trilhões de perdas econômicas, devido a secas, inundações, vendavais, ciclones tropicais, tempestades, a temperaturas extremas, além de deslizamentos de terra e incêndios florestais, epidemias de saúde e infestações de insetos diretamente ligadas às condições meteorológica e hidrológicas. Estima-se que os impactos tenham sido subestimados em pelo menos 50% e a vulnerabilidade humana irá aumentar no contexto do modelo de desenvolvimento vigente.

Esse mapeamento e um conjunto de dados sobre as poucas ações regionais que existem para reverter estes quadros fazem parte das avaliações presentes no Atlas Mundial de Mortalidade e Perdas Econômicas do Tempo, Clima e de Extremos Hídricos (1970-2012). O levantamento foi realizado pela Organização Meteorológica Mundial (OMM) e pelo Centro de Investigação sobre a Epidemiologia dos Desastres (CRED) da Universidade Católica de Louvain, na Bélgica.

Com a apuração, foi monitorado o número de vidas perdidas ou afetadas tanto nos países industrializados como nos não-industrializados e se observou o resultado sobre os meios de subsistência e dados georreferenciados para estimar os riscos antes de um próximo desastre. Segundo os organizadores, o objetivo é que essas informações possam auxiliar medidas práticas para reduzir a vulnerabilidade, com melhores ações quanto à infraestrutura e a novos códigos de construção, por exemplo, entre outras medidas.

O resultado do mapeamento apurou que tempestades e inundações foram responsáveis por 79% do total de desastres, devido às condições meteorológicas, de água e de clima extremos e causaram 54% das mortes e 84% dos prejuízos econômicos. As secas representaram 35% das mortes, principalmente devido aos eventos severos no continente africano nos anos de 1975, 1983 e 1984.

No cálculo global, os países que mais tiveram perdas humanas, além da Etiópia, foram Bangladesh, Sudão, Myanmar, Moçambique, Rússia e Venezuela. Já os maiores efeitos econômicos de desastres ocorreram nos EUA, na China, na Tailândia e na República Democrática da Coreia.

Bangladesh, na Ásia, é um dos países que mais sofrem com os eventos extremos -Foto: Divulgação/Onu

Parte da apuração dos eventos extremos foi feita por meio do Sistema Global Integrado de Observação, composto por 17 satélites, centenas de boias oceânicas, milhares de aviões e navios e aproximadamente 10 mil estações terrestres.

Ações de apoio no mundo
Algumas iniciativas regionais tentam amenizar esse quadro, mas ainda são insuficientes. No continente africano, por exemplo, existe há mais de dez anos, o Fórum Regional Climático Outlook (RCOF), que fornece avisos antecipados sobre o clima sazonal principalmente com relação à seca, para facilitar ações que antecedam os eventos extremos. Na Ásia, especialmente em Bangladesh, o governo tem trabalhado em parceria com a Sociedade Crescente Vermelho de Bangladesh para implementar o Programa de Preparação Cyclone, reduzindo, assim, o número de mortos. A iniciativa é composta por mais de 42 mil voluntários, com uma estrutura de telecomunicação.

Na região das América Central e Caribe,  há mais de 30 anos existe uma cooperação regional para previsão e avisos sobre ciclones tropicais, com apoio da OMM.

Veja os principais países afetados  respectivamente por mortes e economicamente, divididos por regiões no planeta:

ÁFRICA:- Etiópia (1975 e 1983) – 450 mil mortes (seca)
- África do Sul (1987/1990 e 1991) – US$ 3,93 bilhões – (tempestade, inundação e seca)

AMÉRICA DO NORTE, CENTRAL E CARIBE:
- Honduras (1973,74 e 1998) – 25.400 mortes (tempestades e movimentos de massa úmida)
- EUA (vários anos) – US$ 388,23 bi (maior parte por tempestades, como os furacões Andrew/1992, Katrina/2005 e Sandy/2012)

AMÉRICA DO SUL:- Venezuela (1999) – 30 mil mortes (inundação)
- Brasil (1978) – US$ 8,10 bi (seca)

ÁSIA:- Bangladesh (vários anos) – 486 mil mortes (tempestades e inundação)
- China (vários anos) – US$ 164,14 bi (inundações, temperatura extrema e seca)

EUROPA:- Rússia (2010) – 55.736 mortes (temperaturas extremas)
- Alemanha (2002 e 2007) – US$ 14,80 bi e US$ 6,9 bi (inundações e tempestades)

SUDOESTE DO PACÍFICO:- Filipinas (vários anos) – 16.283 mortes (inundações)
- Austrália (vários anos) – US$ 39,34 bilhões (diferentes eventos extremos)

Veja também:

Dia Mundial do Meio ambiente: atenção aos países insulares

Países insulares sob a pressão das mudanças climáticas

Ameaças que vêm do mar: mudanças climáticas afetam litoral brasileiro

Mudanças climáticas: novos rumos nos EUA e para o mundo?

Brasil introduz modelo próprio de previsão de mudanças climáticas globais

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The Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes 1970-2012

wmo
http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_998_en.html

Press Release No. 998

For use of the information media
Not an official record

Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes Better disaster data enables better decisions

Geneva, 11 July 2014 (WMO) - Weather, climate and water-related disasters are on the rise worldwide, causing loss of life and setting back economic and social development by years, if not decades. From 1970 to 2012, 8 835 disasters, 1.94 million deaths, and US$ 2.4 trillion of economic losses were reported globally as a result of hazards such as droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, tropical cyclones and related health epidemics, according to a new report.

The Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather, Climate and Water Extremes 1970-2012 describes the distribution and impacts of weather, climate, and water-related disasters and highlights measures to increase resilience. It is a joint publication of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) of the Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) in Belgium.

The Atlas aims to provide decision-makers with actionable information for protecting life and property.

It is also highlights the need for stronger efforts to report, standardize and analyze data on weather, climate, and water-related hazards to improve understanding of disasters and reinforce the platform for prevention.

The report was published ahead of the First Session of the Preparatory Committee Meeting (Geneva 14-15 July) for the Third United Nations World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction. It seeks to inform debate on the post-2015 framework both for disaster risk reduction and sustainable development.

Storms and floods accounted for 79 per cent of the total number of disasters due to weather, climate and water extremes and caused 55 per cent of lives lost and 86 per cent of economic losses between 1970 and 2012, according to the Atlas. Droughts caused 35 per cent of lives lost, mainly due to the severe African droughts of 1975 and 1983–1984.

The 1983 drought in Ethiopia ranked top of the list of human casualties, claiming 300 000 lives, as did Cyclone Bhola in Bangladesh in 1970. Drought in Sudan in 1984 killed 150 000 people, whilst the Cyclone locally known as Gorky killed 138 866 people in Bangladesh in 1991.

Hurricane Katrina in the United States of America in 2005 caused the worst economic losses, at US$ 146.89 billion, followed by Sandy in 2012 with a cost of $ 50 billion.   

The worst ten reported disasters in terms of lives lost occurred primarily in least developed and developing countries, whereas the economic losses were mainly in more developed countries.

“Disasters caused by weather, climate, and water-related hazards are on the rise worldwide. Both industrialized and non-industrialized countries are bearing the burden of repeated floods, droughts, temperature extremes and storms,” said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud.

“Improved early warning systems and disaster management are helping to prevent loss of life. But the socio-economic impact of disasters is escalating because of their increasing frequency and severity and the growing vulnerability of human societies.”

The report highlighted the importance of historical, geo-referenced information about deaths and damages to estimate risks before the next disaster occurs. This information can support practical decisions on reducing potential impacts by, for example, improved early warning systems, retrofitting critical infrastructure, or enforcing new building codes.

“Collecting global loss data that are comparable and complete is a major challenge. Climate and weather services are working with disaster-impact researchers and data centers to meet this challenge. This partnership is producing analyses that support practical decisions on reducing the human consequences of disasters, for example by investing in early warning systems or targeting the most vulnerable communities,” said CRED Director, Prof. Debarati Sapir.

The United Nation’s Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2013 concluded that direct and indirect losses from natural hazards of all kinds have been underestimated by at least 50 per cent because of the data collection challenges. Because better reporting of disaster impacts is vital for strengthening disaster risk reduction, the international community should help vulnerable countries improve their capacity for developing and maintaining high-quality damage and loss databases.

Another challenge for users of risk information is the changing characteristics (frequency, location, severity) of weather-, climate- and water-related hazards. Natural climate variability is now exacerbated by long-term, human-induced climate change, so that yesterday’s norms will not be the same as tomorrow’s.

The WMO-CRED-Louvain report seeks to raise awareness of these and other challenges to collecting and analyzing disaster risk information. It presents a worldwide analysis of extreme weather, climate and water events drawing on the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT),   compiled by CRED. The Atlas compares the reported impacts of meteorological, climatic and hydrological extremes (as categorized by CRED) on people and economies at both the global and regional levels.

In addition to global statistics and maps, the Atlas also provides details on disasters at the regional level.

Africa: From 1970 to 2012, there were 1 319 reported disasters caused the loss of 698 380 lives and economic damages of US$ 26.6 billion. Although floods were the most prevalent type of disaster (61 per cent), droughts led to the highest number of deaths. The severe droughts in Ethiopia in 1975 and in Mozambique and Sudan in 1983–1984 caused the majority of deaths. Storms and floods, however, caused the highest economic losses (79 per cent).

Asia: Some 2 681 disasters were reported in the 1970–2012 period, causing the loss of 915 389 lives and economic damages of US$ 789.8 billion. Most of these disasters were attributed to floods (45 per cent) and storms (35 per cent). Storms had the highest impact on life, causing 76 per cent of the lives lost, while floods caused the greatest economic loss (60 per cent). Three tropical cyclones were the most significant events, striking Bangladesh and Myanmar and leading to over 500 000 deaths. The largest economic losses were caused primarily by disasters in China, most notably by the 1998 floods.

South America: From 1970 to 2012, South America experienced 696 reported disasters that resulted in 54 995 lives lost and US$ 71.8 billion in economic damages. With regard to impacts, floods caused the greatest loss of life (80 per cent) and the most economic loss (64 per cent). The most significant event during the period was a flood and land and mudslide that occurred in Venezuela in late 1999 and caused 30 000 deaths. This single event skews the loss of life statistics significantly for the entire region.

North America, Central America and the Caribbean reported 1 631 disasters that caused the loss of 71,246 lives and economic damages of US$ 1 008.5 billion. The majority of the reported disasters in this region were attributed to storms (55 per cent) and floods (30 per cent). Storms were reported to be the greatest cause of lives lost (72 per cent) and of economic loss (79 per cent).

The South-West Pacific region experienced 1 156 reported disasters in 1970–2012 that resulted in 54684 deaths and US$ 118.4 billion in economic loss. The majority were caused by storms (46 per cent) and floods (38 per cent).  The most significant reported disasters with regard to lives lost were tropical cyclones, mainly in the Philippines, including the event of 1991, which killed 5956 people. The 1981 drought in Australia caused US$ 15.2 billion in economic losses and the 1997 wildfires in Indonesia caused nearly US$ 11.4 billion in losses.

In Europe, 1 352 reported disasters claimed 149 959 lives and caused US$ 375.7 billion in economic damages. Floods (38 per cent) and storms (30 per cent) were the most reported cause of disasters, but extreme temperatures led to the highest proportion of deaths (94 per cent), with 72 210 lives lost during the 2003 western European heat wave and 55 736 during the 2010 heat wave in the Russian Federation. In contrast, floods and storms accounted for most of the economic losses during the period.

Weather, Climate and Water

For more information:
Clare Nullis, Media Officer, Communications and Public Affairs, Tel: +(41 22) 730 8478; (41-79) 7091397, email: cnullis (at) wmo.int